Clinical epidemiology, machine learning, global health. Intersectional feminist. she/her. Won't tolerate bullying, racism or misogyny. All views mine

Joined October 2017
#JohnSnowMemo Scientists, health professionals, public health researchers- please join the call for action. Sign the John Snow Memorandum here: johnsnowmemo.com/ Please disseminate widely.
NEW Correspondence—80+ researchers warn that a so-called #herdimmunity approach to managing #COVID19 is “a dangerous fallacy unsupported by the scientific evidence” #WCPH2020 hubs.li/H0xZVrs0
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Excellent piece by @sashajourno in @BylineTimes on long COVID with comments from me and @doctorasadkhan
Bank of England says Long COVID is having a huge impact on the workforce. I spoke to people with the condition about their struggles with work and money for @BylineTimes bylinetimes.com/2022/05/26/t…
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Dr. Deepti Gurdasani retweeted
Long COVID is an increasing source of public anxiety, particularly regarding neurological issues. In the UK, an estimated 1.8 million people in private households self-reported Long COVID symptoms in May 2022. covidactuaries.org/2022/05/2…
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Dr. Deepti Gurdasani retweeted
Do you have a Conservative MP? Did you write to them about partygate - and did they promise to get back to you after Sue Gray's report? I would love to see any replies that have been sent to constituents *AFTER* the report. My email is in my bio.
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To every govt allowing mass infection because - vaccination - please read this. An excess burden of post-covid sequelae of 120/1000 (12%) among those with breakthrough infection & excess burden of death of 1.3% *post-COVID* at 6 months is not a cost any country can 'live with'.
The latest from our team in @NatureMedicine Does vaccination protect from #LongCovid? Vaccines modestly reduce but do not eliminate risk of Long Covid @VAResearch @vahsrd @WUSTLmed @WUSTLnews @VREFSTL @Biostayan @BCBowe nature.com/articles/s41591-0… A thread 🧵
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We *need to suppress* with high-grade masks, ventilation, rapid testing, supported isolation - *while* we wait for the next generation of vaccines, and better treatments for long COVID. This will lead to *huge* increases in chronic illness. We really need to recognise this.
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COVID-19 isn't just an acute illness- it has a *huge* component of long-term disease - which affects every single organ system in the body. It is NOT the flu. If we don't recognise this, we will be complicit in one of the biggest preventable impacts to public health long-term.
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The long-term impact of COVID-19, I suspect will outweigh even the hugely devastating and tragic acute impacts we've seen so far over time. Because we're doing very very little to prevent it. Because we aren't even measuring it, or considering it in our policies.
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People talk about 'uncertainty' with long COVID- but there are so many *huge* studies now that show pretty clearly the increased risk of heart, kidney, neurological, psychiatric, metabolic, lung disease & clotting.
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Even if you forget the precautionary principle (which clearly many govts have), and act solely on robust evidence, when will the evidence be sufficient to act? Because there is ample evidence now that the impacts are *huge* & a vaccine-only approach just isn't enough.
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Vitally important research on the risk of post-acute complications after breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infection: -Significant increase in death (1.75x) at 6 mths -post-acute incidental disease risk 1.5x higher -2-dose vaccines protect but are limited -Risk much higher than flu 🧵
The latest from our team in @NatureMedicine Does vaccination protect from #LongCovid? Vaccines modestly reduce but do not eliminate risk of Long Covid @VAResearch @vahsrd @WUSTLmed @WUSTLnews @VREFSTL @Biostayan @BCBowe nature.com/articles/s41591-0… A thread 🧵
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This is one of the many reasons we need a suppression strategy. We are letting high levels of transmission continue for a virus that even 6 months post-infection is associated with a 1.75 fold higher risk of dying, and a 1.5x higher risk of complications.
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While these are *relative* risks, the absolute excess risk for post-COVID sequelae is >1% (120/1000) among those infected. That's pretty substantial considering that >70% of people in the UK have been exposed to infection.
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This is despite vaccination (2-dose). It's unacceptable to mass expose people to an infection that results in 1.75x higher risk of death up to 6 mnths after & significantly increases the risk of developing heart, kidney, neurological, metabolic, clotting, or lung disease.
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This study is perhaps not getting as much attention as it should - it's one of the first and most thorough studies on post-acute complications of COVID-19 in the vaccine era. Vaccines provided ~15% protection from increased risk of complications & ~34% from death post-COVID-19
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We really need a vaccine plus approach. Without this, we are really facing the pandemic of chronic disease after the pandemic. In many ways, given mass exposure at population level, this excess disease is now a given. But we must at least protect people from re-infections.
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Important to say that boosters may provide a different level of protection, at least in the short term given there is reasonable protection against infection as well for a few months & if you don't get infected, you can't get long COVID. But that will likely wane over time.
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We also have a likely BA.4/5 wave round the corner, given their relative growth rates with greater escape from vaccines than BA.2, so important to take precautions (e.g. high grade masks, ventilation, avoiding crowded indoor environments, isolating if infected)
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So sorry, the above tweet should've said >12% (120/1000) rather than >1%!! That's 12% of those infected having one or more new complication up to 6 months - the excess burden attributed to COVID-19. It's *huge* in terms of population risk.
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Exactly. And frontline workers had to work in horrible conditions, taking unacceptable risks (remember the PPE fiasco?) *because* govt wasn't doing it's job. Their failed policies devastated the NHS. People have been working extremely hard to compensate for their utter failure.
Personally I don’t accept that « people in Downing Street «  worked exceptionally hard compared to the millions of essential workers and others who worked throughout the pandemic.
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I'm not a frontline worker, but can certainly say the last 2 years of my life would've been a lot less busy had they done their jobs.
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