10) I’ve alluded to this trend in kids 0-9 before over a month ago in the #B117 data... while kids overall lower risk than adults, #B117 has yielded greater increase in attack rate in kids 0-9 than in those over age 10, compared to the older common strain.
3) Furthermore, in genetic tests of b117, the B117 has 47.5% higher attack rate vs common virus type among kids age 0-9! Compare that w/ only 39.5% higher for B117 among adults. Two separate sets of data—same thing—with both pointing to higher relative increase in young kids.Show this thread
11) I’ll also leave this Italy 🇮🇹 village outbreak story here.
Holy cow: 10% of the village of Corzano 🇮🇹 has the #B117 variant—10% of all residents! 60% of cases are kids from kindergarten and primary school, other 40% are their parents, says the mayor. Schools in the village now closed. ansa.it/amp/lombardia/notizi…Show this thread
12) Dr @dgurdasani1 thinks it’s likely schools.... she points out that in the initial lockdown, kids positivity dropped the same as adults, but then diverged from adults because of gradual school reopenings. It’s a good point.
The real differences are likely to be greater, given that much of infection is asymptomatic in children. Also worth noting the steep drop initially after school closure, which then plateaus to become more gradual after school re-openings.Show this thread
13) On the bright side, lockdowns do work. Can we sustain the case drop once all schools are reopen is the question. Maybe we can afford some small school related transmission while keeping overall transmission low enough while aiming for general suppression. 🤔
15) Notably absent from new CDC guidance was ventilation. In one short paragraph, CDC suggested schools open windows & doors to increase circulation, but said they should not be “if doing so poses a safety risk or a health risk.” #COVID19 nytimes.com/2021/02/12/healt…
C.D.C. Draws Up a Blueprint for Reopening Schools (Published 2021)
Amid an acrid national controversy, the agency proposed detailed criteria for returning students to classrooms.nytimes.com
16) This 🧵 makes the clear case that school transmission of #COVID19 does occur, & increases when cases levels rise—which then further drives school transmission. It’s a deep analytical 🧵 but that’s the Bottomline. Schools are not impervious to risk.
However, once child prevalence surpasses a certain critical threshold, a phase transition of sorts occurs. Suddenly, the majority of child infection isn’t coming from homes; it’s from pauci-/pre-/a-symptomatic kids at school, and we see relative increase trends like this: 8/Show this thread
17) New outbreaks now seen in both Austria and Denmark too. Austrian town’s outbreak.
Sudden Kindergarten outbreak—a once small #COVID19 outbreak in an Austrian🇦🇹 kindergarten exploded from 10 cases Monday to suddenly *32 cases* by Wed—20 cases in kids, 12 adults & caregivers. (Article in German—translation below). HT @hiems_mollis. noen.at/melk/coronavirus-kin…Show this thread
18) Denmark city outbreak of #B117.
Outbreak of 69 #COVID19 cases in 2 schools, plus 20 at daycare centers in one Danish city—all #B117. “Something going on with the infection of [🇬🇧 variant] #B117 among children that we have not seen with the old coronavirus” says an epidemiologist. 🧵 cphpost.dk/?p=122479Show this thread
Feb 19, 2021 · 11:44 AM UTC