Worrisome鈥擴K 馃嚞馃嚙 data shows suddenly higher #COVID19 positivity % in England 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩 (where #B117 highly dominant) in children ages 5-9, in both boys and girls, sustained each week over 4 consecutive weeks. Ages 0-4 positivity also increasing. Israel 馃嚠馃嚤 has also seen kids case trend.
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2) As noted by @dgurdasani1, this is all despite these data really underestimating infection in children (as they are based on symptom based testing). And positivity rates appear highest in early year settings (fully open) & primary schools (20% attendance).
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3) Dr @dgurdasani1 believe it is related to schools in England 馃彺鬆仹鬆仮鬆仴鬆伄鬆仹鬆伩.
Replying to @dgurdasani1
Infection among children closely tracks school openings and closures (as we saw even during october half term), and level of attendance (trends in secondary schools where attendance is much lower are different). Again in line with substantial transmission occurring in schools.
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4) Cases are dropping because of general lockdown restrictions across UK, but the notably higher positivity in children 5-9 especially stands out鈥攌ids positivity didn鈥檛 used to stand out last year at all.
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5) Israel 馃嚠馃嚤 is seeing a sharp rise in the number of children and teens getting #COVID19, where #B117 rising. >50,000 children have been diagnosed with #COVID19 since start of Jan, many more than Israel saw in any month during the first or second waves. m.jpost.com/health-science/w鈥
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6) 鈥淲e got a letter from the Israeli Association of Pediatrics that says they are very worried about the rate of disease in younger students,鈥 Health Minister Yuli Edelstein told The Jerusalem Post. 鈥淭his is something we did not witness in previous waves of corona.鈥
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7) Instead of around 29% of new cases coming from children and teens, as in the second wave, now they are around 40% of cases, Public Health Services head Sharon Alroy-Preis said in the Knesset on Monday. The greatest spike was in children between ages of **6 and 9** (matches 馃嚞馃嚙)

Feb 12, 2021 路 6:16 PM UTC

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8) 鈥渁ccording to Cyrille Cohen, head of Bar-Ilan University鈥檚 immunotherapy laboratory, the numbers seem to be rising. one hypothesis is that it is tied to the British 馃嚞馃嚙 mutation #B117, which has spread rapidly across Israel.鈥
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9) 鈥淭he British variant is more contagious, so it increases the chances of infection in children,鈥 Cohen told the Post.鈥
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10) I鈥檝e alluded to this trend in kids 0-9 before over a month ago in the #B117 data... while kids overall lower risk than adults, #B117 has yielded greater increase in attack rate in kids 0-9 than in those over age 10, compared to the older common strain.
Replying to @DrEricDing
3) Furthermore, in genetic tests of b117, the B117 has 47.5% higher attack rate vs common virus type among kids age 0-9! Compare that w/ only 39.5% higher for B117 among adults. Two separate sets of data鈥攕ame thing鈥攚ith both pointing to higher relative increase in young kids.
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11) I鈥檒l also leave this Italy 馃嚠馃嚬 village outbreak story here.
Holy cow: 10% of the village of Corzano 馃嚠馃嚬 has the #B117 variant鈥10% of all residents! 60% of cases are kids from kindergarten and primary school, other 40% are their parents, says the mayor. Schools in the village now closed. ansa.it/amp/lombardia/notizi鈥
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12) Dr @dgurdasani1 thinks it鈥檚 likely schools.... she points out that in the initial lockdown, kids positivity dropped the same as adults, but then diverged from adults because of gradual school reopenings. It鈥檚 a good point.
Replying to @dgurdasani1
The real differences are likely to be greater, given that much of infection is asymptomatic in children. Also worth noting the steep drop initially after school closure, which then plateaus to become more gradual after school re-openings.
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13) On the bright side, lockdowns do work. Can we sustain the case drop once all schools are reopen is the question. Maybe we can afford some small school related transmission while keeping overall transmission low enough while aiming for general suppression. 馃
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14) Here are the school attendance rates in the UK. The sharp parallel drop of kids & adults occurred during the winter break. But once schools reopened, then the positivity started diverging between kids and adults. We can鈥檛 delude ourselves.
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15) Notably absent from new CDC guidance was ventilation. In one short paragraph, CDC suggested schools open windows & doors to increase circulation, but said they should not be 鈥渋f doing so poses a safety risk or a health risk.鈥 #COVID19 nytimes.com/2021/02/12/healt鈥
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16) This 馃У makes the clear case that school transmission of #COVID19 does occur, & increases when cases levels rise鈥攚hich then further drives school transmission. It鈥檚 a deep analytical 馃У but that鈥檚 the Bottomline. Schools are not impervious to risk.
Replying to @SarahDRasmussen
However, once child prevalence surpasses a certain critical threshold, a phase transition of sorts occurs. Suddenly, the majority of child infection isn鈥檛 coming from homes; it鈥檚 from pauci-/pre-/a-symptomatic kids at school, and we see relative increase trends like this: 8/
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17) New outbreaks now seen in both Austria and Denmark too. Austrian town鈥檚 outbreak.
Sudden Kindergarten outbreak鈥攁 once small #COVID19 outbreak in an Austrian馃嚘馃嚬 kindergarten exploded from 10 cases Monday to suddenly *32 cases* by Wed鈥20 cases in kids, 12 adults & caregivers. (Article in German鈥攖ranslation below). HT @hiems_mollis. noen.at/melk/coronavirus-kin鈥
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18) Denmark city outbreak of #B117.
Outbreak of 69 #COVID19 cases in 2 schools, plus 20 at daycare centers in one Danish city鈥攁ll #B117. 鈥淪omething going on with the infection of [馃嚞馃嚙 variant] #B117 among children that we have not seen with the old coronavirus鈥 says an epidemiologist. 馃У cphpost.dk/?p=122479
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