BAD CORONAVIRUS VARIANT DATA—Folks, the B117 #SARSCoV2 variant from 🇬🇧 is a dangerous *hellish beast*. This new UK data shows attack rates (% exposed who get infected) of B117 vs common variants: B117 has 33-36% higher attack rate overall. It’s also maybe worse in kids.🧵#COVID19
3) Furthermore, in genetic tests of b117, the B117 has 47.5% higher attack rate vs common virus type among kids age 0-9! Compare that w/ only 39.5% higher for B117 among adults. Two separate sets of data—same thing—with both pointing to higher relative increase in young kids.
Jan 9, 2021 · 3:21 AM UTC
4) Bottomline, it seems new UK 🇬🇧 B117 variant has not only ~ 33-36% higher attack rate compared to common #SARSCoV2 type, but it is 43.5-47.5% higher for young kids! ➡️While kids lower risk than adults overall, the new B117 virus is potentially relatively worse for young kids.
5) this is why Denmark’s CDC urgently warned to crush the pandemic now or else!
⚠️CRUSH VIRUS NOW OR ELSE WE ARE SCREWED: Denmark’s CDC thinks new B117 #SARSCoV2 variant is so much more contagious (R +0.4 to +0.7) & inevitable that **if any country does not crush the R<0.7 now**, we will be completely #COVID19 screwed by Feb/March.🧵 ssi.dk/aktuelt/nyheder/2021/…Show this thread
6) How much of a beast—suppose we have 1000 cases/day now... with an R=0.86 we could reduce it to 500/day in 2 weeks. ➡️But w/ added contagiousness of B117 variant that has ~60% higher R, in 2 weeks, we’d have 3000 new cases/day instead—3x baseline. ➡️6x higher vs old variant.
7) I’m gonna simplify key things with the new attack rate data: —New b117 variant is more contagious (high attack rate) —kids still lower transmission but not as much as before —B117’s increase in attack over the old type appears greater in kids 0-9 than increase in adults.
8) other data on kids transmission. This is data mostly based on old common variant, not the new B117. It’s already worrying. (SAGE is UK govt expert group)
Children & #COVID19—UK 🇬🇧 SAGE expert report speaks for itself. 📌Kids more likely to bring the virus into household than aged 17+ 📌Young people 2-16 more likely to be first case in household—age 12-16 are 7x more likely. 📌2-16 year olds more >2x as likely to pass on virus.Show this thread
9) latest SCIENCE study
MOST EFFECTIVE INTERVENTIONS: What works best for reducing R(t)? 📌Limiting gatherings <10 people: 42% reduction 📌Closing schools & universities: 38% reduction—which was “remarkably robust“ ➡️big paper published in @ScienceMagazine—Legit. #COVID19 🧵 science.sciencemag.org/conte…Show this thread